At the frontline

released in June predict warmer, drier summers for the UK and milder, wetter winters. The report, presented by environment secretary Hilary Benn, gives three different scenarios with detailed results for the corresponding climate in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. In the worst-case scenario, i.e. if Copenhagen fails and not much is done to curb emissions, the hottest summer days could end up being 12oC hotter than they are today, turning London into the equivalent of today’s Madrid or Rome. One of the most cherished arguments against green measures in the UK goes along the lines of “Look at China: they open a new, dirty, coal-fired power-plant every day, so whatever we do will be wiped out by that.” Recent reports from China suggest, however, that this argument may soon lose its foundation, as the State Council is preparing a large “new energy” program which may dwarf green efforts of all other countries. Estimates of the investment involved range from $200 billion to $600 billion. China is already a world leader in the production of solar panels and wind turbines. It is also making progress with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology for its famously dirty power plants, and with the development of electric and hybrid cars. With the extra investment which could match China’s military budget, the country could become the leading force in all green technologies and thus also dominate the world markets in this promising field. Meanwhile, among the countries that have already adopted green technology on a large scale, Germany is making the experience that even measures designed to fight climate change can face fierce opposition from environmentalists and nimbyists. Several energy companies in Germany are planning to introduce CCS technology, removing carbon dioxide from power plant exhausts and storing it below ground in suitable geological formations. Vattenfall is already operating a demonstration plant and a pilot plant with the new technology installed and is hoping to connect these with pipelines to storage sites, while RWE and E.on are looking for suitable storage sites in northern Germany. Angela Merkel’s government was hoping to pass a new legislation to secure the legality of such operations in the Bundestag at the end of June, but had to give up the attempt after resistance in both halves of her governing coalition of social democrats (SPD) and Christian democrats (CDU/CSU). After widespread protests near the prospective storage sites in northern Germany, and especially along the North Sea coast, where locals fear the storage sites might scare away the tourists, the parties began to fear punishment in the September general elections and dropped the topic for the time being. As a result, Germany may end up extending the lifetime of nuclear power plants that had already been earmarked for closure. Responding to this development, climate researcher and co-chair of one of the IPCC working groups Ottmar Edenhofer told the news magazine Der Spiegel: “This is a disaster for the climate. Without the possibility to sequester CO2 from coal power plants and store it below ground, global climate protection will hardly be possible.” Thus, while some of the less than perfect pupils in climate school have begun to catch up on their homework in preparation for Copenhagen, it appears that there is still a lot of work left to do for all parties to ensure that the meeting comes to the successful conclusion that the world needs.